Understanding Visa Availability
The EB-5 landscape has changed significantly since the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA) introduced three visa set-aside categories: Rural, High Unemployment Area (HUA), and Infrastructure. More than four years into the post-RIA program, investors are beginning to have access to meaningful data on how these categories are being processed by USCIS. The latest data provides an important reminder: an I-526E approval is a significant milestone, but it is not the end of the EB-5 immigration process, and it should not be the only factor investors consider when evaluating an EB-5 opportunity.
In September 2026, the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) released additional data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to USCIS. Unlike USCIS's standard quarterly reports, the data provides a more detailed breakdown of I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials by country, visa set-aside category, and filing date through May 31, 2026.
What the Latest I-526E Data Shows
In September 2026, the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) released additional data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to USCIS. Unlike USCIS's standard quarterly reports, the FOIA data provides a more detailed breakdown of I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials by country, visa set-aside category, and filing date through May 31, 2026.
According to the FOIA data, 19,179 I-526/I-526E petitions were filed between April 2022 and May 2026. Of those petitions:
9,348 were associated with Rural projects
8,605 were associated with High Unemployment Area projects
1,226 were classified as unreserved or otherwise unidentified
USCIS's dataset reported no Infrastructure petitions, although AIIA notes that Infrastructure petitions have been filed and that this appears to reflect a data-collection issue.
Rural EB-5 Petitions Are Being Adjudicated at a Higher Rate
As of May 31, 2026, USCIS had adjudicated approximately 56% of Rural petitions, compared with approximately 20% of HUA petitions. Rural petitions accounted for approximately 72% of all adjudications during the period.
This disparity is important for another reason. Under the RIA, 20% of annual EB-5 visa numbers are reserved for Rural investments, compared with 10% for HUA investments and 2% for Infrastructure investments. As more Rural I-526E petitions are adjudicated and approved, more Rural investors can potentially progress toward the visa-issuance stage.
That raises an important question: How long can the Rural category remain Current as the pool of approved investors continues to grow?
During a recent EB-5 webinar, Charlie Oppenheim - former Chief of the U.S. Department of State's Visa Control and Reporting Division, discussed the growing demand in the post-RIA set-aside categories. He noted that, because USCIS has been prioritizing Rural petition adjudications and approving Rural petitions at a higher rate, Rural is likely to be the first set-aside category to require a Final Action Date.
In his discussion, Charlie Oppenheim indicated that a Rural cutoff could emerge during FY2027. Industry discussion has specifically focused on the possibility of this occurring as early as the second quarter of FY2027.
This should be understood as a projection, not an announced government timeline. The Department of State has not announced a Rural cutoff date, and the timing of any future retrogression will depend on actual visa demand, petition approvals, derivative family members, country of chargeability, and the rate at which approved investors proceed to visa issuance or adjustment of status.
Nevertheless, the current data provides an important reason for investors to pay attention to the pace of Rural adjudications. As of October 2026, Rural, HUA, and Infrastructure remain Current for all listed countries. However, "Current" reflects the availability of visa numbers at a particular point in time, it does not guarantee that the category will remain Current indefinitely.
India's Unreserved EB-5 Category Is Also Showing Positive Signs
In July 2026, the U.S. Department of State announced that all available FY2026 EB-5 unreserved visas for applicants chargeable to India had been issued or allocated. The category became unavailable for the remainder of FY2026 and reopened with the start of FY2027 on October 1, 2026.
Charlie Oppenheim has previously explained that the pre-RIA India unreserved backlog appears to be essentially eliminated. If the remaining pre-RIA demand is cleared, visa numbers that were previously being used by those older cases can increasingly become available to other eligible EB-5 investors.
This is an important distinction. The clearing of the pre-RIA backlog does not mean that all Indian post-RIA investors immediately have unrestricted visa availability. Rather, it may improve the supply of available visa numbers for the broader pool of Indian investors over time, depending on demand and annual visa availability.
For Indian investors, this makes the relationship between I-526E approval, visa availability, and the Visa Bulletin particularly important to monitor.
An I-526E Approval Is Only One Part of the EB-5 Process
An I-526E approval is an important immigration milestone, but it is not the finish line. Investors must still navigate visa availability and, depending on their circumstances, consular processing or adjustment of status before obtaining conditional permanent residence. As the current Visa Bulletin demonstrates, visa availability can change even after an investor has filed or received approval of an I-526E.
But there is another consideration that deserves equal attention: EB-5 is also a substantial financial commitment.
For many investors, the ultimate goal is a U.S. green card. But achieving that goal requires committing $800,000 of capital to an investment that must satisfy the EB-5 requirements while remaining subject to the risks of the underlying project. An I-526E approval does not make the investment risk-free or guarantee repayment. That makes project selection just as important as understanding the immigration pathway.
What Should Investors Look for in an EB-5 Project?
Investors should evaluate an EB-5 opportunity not only for its immigration structure, but also as an investment.
Project Fundamentals
Investors should understand what they are actually financing: the project's location, development stage, total cost, market demand, projected revenues, and overall business plan.
Capital Structure
Where does the EB-5 capital sit within the capital stack? Investors should understand the amount and priority of senior debt, EB-5 financing, sponsor equity, and any other sources of capital. The structure matters because the relative position of each layer can affect the investment's risk and repayment prospects.
Collateral and Leverage
For real-estate-backed investments, investors should examine the underlying collateral, loan-to-value (LTV), loan-to-cost (LTC), sponsor equity, and the amount of financing ahead of the EB-5 investment.
Development and Investment Team
The experience of the developer, lender, regional center, and fund manager also matters. Investors should look at the team's track record completing comparable projects, managing investor capital, navigating different market conditions, and ultimately repaying investors.
Job Creation
Because job creation remains a fundamental EB-5 requirement, investors should understand the project's job-creation methodology, projected employment, and available job cushion.
Exit and Repayment
Finally, investors should understand how and when their capital is expected to be repaid. Is repayment expected to come from a sale, refinancing, operating cash flow, or another source? What is the contractual maturity, and are extensions possible? These are not merely investment questions, they are central to understanding the overall EB-5 opportunity.
Why Real Estate Financing Experience Matters
This is where the experience behind an EB-5 regional center can make a meaningful difference.
When an EB-5 investment is structured around real estate financing, investors benefit from looking at the project through more than an immigration lens. The same questions a lender asks - Is the project viable? Is the capital structure appropriate? Is the collateral sufficient? Is the leverage reasonable? Is the development team experienced? And what is the path to repayment? - are important questions for investors as well.
iCross × ARCFE: Combining Real Estate Finance and EB-5 Experience
ARCFE is a USCIS-designated EB-5 Regional Center originally designated in 2013 and redesignated under the RIA in 2022. Founded by iCross Capital, a New York City real estate financing institution with nearly two decades of lending experience, ARCFE brings real-estate underwriting and financing experience into the EB-5 investment process.
Since 2013, ARCFE has managed more than 20 EB-5 projects, while iCross Capital has financed more than 60 real estate projects and investment funds across the New York metropolitan area. This combined experience allows ARCFE to evaluate EB-5 opportunities through both an immigration and real-estate finance lens, from project fundamentals and capital structure to job creation and repayment.
A Track Record Through the Full Investment Lifecycle
Track record matters because an EB-5 investment does not end with an I-526E filing or approval. It continues through project execution, job creation, the required investment period, and ultimately the return of eligible investor principal.
As of September 2026, ARCFE had maintained a strong track record of 100% repayment rate to all eligible investors, with all ARCFE-sponsored investments that had reached maturity and satisfied their applicable repayment conditions repaid in full.
Most significantly, ARCFE became the first EB-5 regional center to complete post-RIA $800,000 principal repayments to eligible investors.
In August 2026, two eligible Group 12 investors each received their full $800,000 investment principal. In September, another eligible Group 12 investor and a Group 13 investor also received their full $800,000 principal repayments.
These milestones demonstrate ARCFE's focus on managing the full investment lifecycle - from project selection and structuring, through capital deployment and project execution, to the eventual repayment of eligible investor principal.
The green card may be the primary objective, but the $800,000 investment is still real capital, and choosing where that capital is invested matters. Working with an experienced team that understands both EB-5 requirements and the fundamentals of real estate investing can make a meaningful difference in how an investment is structured, managed, and ultimately repaid.
Speak with an EB-5 specialist to discuss your immigration goals, timeline, and available investment opportunities.
